Phnom Penh 2026–2027: Apartment and Condo Prices – Three Market Scenarios and Real Numbers

Phnom Penh 2026–2027: Why the Price Question Is Critical Today

The apartment and condo market in Phnom Penh has entered a phase where asking "will it rise" is no longer enough—the real question is "under which scenario and for whom."

The years 2026–2027 won't be uniform. This won't be an "everything rises" or "everything falls" market. It will be a selective market where location, demand structure, and entry price determine the outcome.

Phnom Penh in 30 Seconds: The Key Fact

Prices in Phnom Penh won't rise "everywhere"—they will diverge.

The best projects in central districts will hold value and may grow, while peripheral or poorly priced projects will stagnate or require price corrections.

Starting Point: Real Price Per Sqm in 2025

Before exploring scenarios, we need to establish the baseline.

Current price ranges (primary and secondary market, 2025):

Central Districts (BKK1, BKK2, Daun Penh):

• $2,800 – $4,200 per sqm
• Premium and branded projects: $4,500–$5,500 per sqm

Developing Districts (Toul Kork, Russian Market):

• $2,000 – $2,800 per sqm

Peripheral and Speculative Projects:

• $1,400 – $1,900 per sqm

These figures serve as the reference point for 2026–2027.

What Actually Drives Prices in Phnom Penh (Not Marketing)

The Phnom Penh market is driven by hard factors, not developer narratives.

Factor 1: Local and Expat Demand, Not Tourism

Phnom Penh is not a tourist market like Phuket or Bangkok.

Demand is created by:

• Expats (diplomacy, NGOs, corporations),
• Local middle and upper classes,
• Long-term rentals (6–24 months).

This stabilizes prices but limits "rapid spikes."

Factor 2: Oversupply from 2018–2022 Projects

Many projects from the boom period were delivered with delays.

Result:

• Price pressure in weaker locations,
• Transaction discounts of 5–15%,
• Greater importance of quality and building management.

Factor 3: Financing Costs and Foreign Capital

Cambodia remains a cash-based market.

The absence of mass mortgage lending means:

• Smaller speculative bubble,
• Slower but more stable price changes,
• Greater resilience to global interest rate shocks.

SCENARIO 1: GROWTH (Selective)

Conditions for the growth scenario:

• Political and currency stability,
• Employment growth in international sectors,
• Limited new supply in the center.

Price Impact 2026–2027:

• Top locations: +5–8% annually
• Market average: +2–4% annually

Example:

Condo in BKK1 purchased at $3,500 per sqm

→ Possible 2027 price: $3,900–$4,100 per sqm

SCENARIO 2: STAGNATION (Most Likely)

This is the baseline scenario.

Market:

• Absorbs existing supply,
• Prices remain nominally flat,
• Real returns come from rental yield, not appreciation.

Price Impact:

• Changes of –1% to +2% annually
• Greater negotiation discounts (fit-out, parking spaces).

This is a favorable scenario for cash investors.

SCENARIO 3: CORRECTION (Local, Not Systemic)

Applies to specific projects, not the entire city.

Conditions:

• Starting price too high,
• Poor location,
• Lack of tenant demand.

Scale of Correction:

• –10% to –20% in peripheral projects,
• No correction in top-tier locations.

The Most Common Myth About Phnom Penh

"If prices aren't rising quickly, the market is weak."

This is false.

Phnom Penh is a market that is:

• Defensive,
• Focused on cashflow,
• Less volatile than tourism-driven markets.

How to Protect Yourself as an Investor (Practically)

Rule 1: Calculate ROI from Rental Yield, Not Price Appreciation

Average net ROI in good projects:

• 6–8% net annually
• With long-term rentals.

Rule 2: Buy Below the Local Median

If the district average is $2,800 per sqm, target $2,400–$2,600 per sqm.

This provides a buffer against stagnation.

Rule 3: Check Maintenance Costs

Typical annual expenses (Phnom Penh):

• Maintenance fee: $0.8–$1.5 per sqm/month
• Sinking fund: $100–$300/year
• Insurance: $150–$300/year

3 Facts You Must Know (2026–2027)

Fact 1: Top districts don't depreciate; the rest compete on price.

Fact 2: Long-term rentals stabilize valuations.

Fact 3: Entry price matters more than growth forecasts.

Investor Checklist: Phnom Penh (5 Points)

Before buying, verify:

1. Price per sqm vs district average
2. Real tenant demand
3. Building maintenance costs
4. Resale flexibility
5. Whether ROI works without price appreciation

If any point doesn't add up—it's not an opportunity, it's a sales pitch.

Summary: What Will Happen to Prices in Phnom Penh

The years 2026–2027 won't be spectacular, but they will be logical.

This is a market that:

• Rewards patience,
• Punishes overpaying,
• Rewards good location and simple math.

If you buy wisely—the Phnom Penh market works.

If you buy based on "it will rise"—the risk is on you.

SOURCES (links)

https://www.cbre.com/insights/books/asia-pacific-market-outlook

https://www.knightfrank.com/research

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/real-estate

https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/cambodia

https://www.phnompenhpost.com/business