Phuket enters 2026 as a market of "mature selection": demand remains strong but more discerning, with pricing power increasingly held by projects with prime locations, reputable brands, quality product (layouts, finishes, rental management), and smart sales strategies. This marks an important shift from the period when nearly every new project "sold itself" on the wave of post-pandemic recovery.

Below you'll find hard data on per-sqm prices (THB/sqm and PLN/sqm conversions), plus the key trends that, according to 2024–2025 reports and analyses, are most likely to shape the market in 2026.

1) What Does a Condo sqm Cost in Phuket? The Most Useful Numbers (and How to Read Them)

Island-Wide Median (Baseline Reference)

According to C9 Hotelworks data (as of April 30, 2025), the median condo price on Phuket stands at 144,000 THB/sqm.
At an exchange rate of approximately 1 THB ≈ 0.114 PLN (December 2025), this translates to ~16,416 PLN/sqm.

This isn't an "average from listings" but an aggregated median from market reports—useful for comparing locations and segments, though you must account for variance (standard, views, floor level, beach proximity, project brand, sales phase).

Location-Based Differences (Median sqm Prices in Key Zones)

The same report breaks down median per-sqm prices across selected Phuket areas (condo data, emphasizing primary market and price structures). In short: premium clearly concentrates on the west coast and "lifestyle hub" zones.

Practically speaking (for 2026), think of the market in three "bands":

A) Top zones (premium & super-premium): Cherngtalay / Bang Tao / Laguna and surroundings—highest medians and strongest price resilience, especially for branded projects and "extended stay" products.
B) Strong demand zones: Rawai / Nai Harn / south—very high "long-stay" demand, but also greater sensitivity to competition and new supply.
C) More price-competitive zones: Karon, Wichit, Phuket Town and vicinity—often better entry pricing, but require more attention to rental strategy, standards, and location advantage.

Primary vs Secondary Market: Where's the "Newness Premium"?

C9 Hotelworks shows a significant price gap: non-branded condo in primary market ~139,000 THB/sqm vs secondary market ~100,000 THB/sqm (average for selected locations)—interpreted in the report as a premium for newer layouts, standards, and amenities.

For investors in 2026, this means something straightforward:

• If you buy off-plan / primary market, you pay more per sqm, but you're also "buying" a modern product and often easier rental marketing;
• If you buy secondary/resale, you sometimes enter at a lower price, but must budget for renovation/refresh and face real competition from new projects nearby.

Off-Plan vs Resale – Industry Media Example

Bangkok Post reported 2024 averages: off-plan ~121,000 THB/sqm vs resale ~68,000 THB/sqm (in context of market dynamics and H1 2025 cooling).
This isn't "absolute truth for the whole island," but a good signal of the scale of difference the market actually experiences.

2) What's Happening with Supply and Demand – Why 2026 is a Year of Selection

Supply: Record 2024 and More Cautious 2025 (Carrying into 2026)

Colliers indicates that 2024 was record-breaking for new condo launches (14,718 units, 56 projects), with total inventory reaching 37,458 units.
At the same time, the report notes that by Q4 2024, the market absorbed ~63.64% (23,839 units)—a strong result, but achieved with high sales activity and very intensive marketing.

For 2025, Colliers predicted a drop in new launches to ~5,000–7,000 units, signaling a clearly more conservative developer approach.
This is typical mechanics after a "record year": the market doesn't disappear, but starts rewarding the best and most operationally efficient players.

Demand: "Lifestyle Migration" and Long-Stay as Stabilizer

C9 Hotelworks describes demand increasingly driven by second-home buyers / extended stays, remote work, and relocation, not purely "investment speculation."
Colliers points to strong influence from Russian buyers and investors from Bangkok in key hotspots (including Bang Tao / Choeng Thalay).

3) Branded Residences: Why the Premium Segment is "Pulling Away" in Price

One of the most practical insights in C9 data is the calculated brand premium:

• Branded condo: ~181,000 THB/sqm
• Non-branded: ~141,000 THB/sqm
  representing approximately a 28% premium for brand and "product quality" (standards, service, owner experience).

In 2026, this trend will strengthen further because with rising competition and abundant supply, clients (and tenants) seek "safe choices": projects easier to rent, easier to resell, and easier to maintain in quality.

4) Key Trends for 2026 That Actually Impact Per-sqm Prices

Trend 1: Rising Secondary Market Competition

C9 explicitly writes about a growing challenge: large numbers of units in active supply and older projects entering resale circulation increase pressure on developers to defend prices through product features, not just advertising.
In practice, this means "average" projects will need to work with discounts/promotions, while "top" projects hold better.

Trend 2: Layouts for 1–12 Month Stays, Not Just Short-Term Daily Rentals

The C9 report indicates growing value in layouts and features suited to mid-term rental (1–12 months), including storage, functionality, "dual key" solutions—in context of legal restrictions and sensitivities around short-term daily rentals.
In 2026, winning projects will be those comfortable to live in, not just "pretty in photos."

Trend 3: Limited Land in Top Locations and Cost Pressure

In the best west coast zones (Bang Tao / Cherngtalay and surroundings), land availability and lifestyle infrastructure itself cause the market to maintain a premium. C9 indicates the highest price levels precisely there.
This naturally pushes up per-sqm prices in projects "truly close" to key points (beaches, beach clubs, Laguna, international schools, shopping centers).

Trend 4: "Cooling" Signals – But More in Volumes Than Quality Prices

Bangkok Post described cooling in H1 2025 (drops in new launches and sales), while showing that off-plan per-sqm prices remained significantly higher than resale.
This typically means: the market doesn't "crack" uniformly, but becomes selective. Average projects sit longer; top ones still sell.

5) THB → PLN Conversions (to Make Numbers "Readable in Polish Context")

Reference exchange rate 1 THB ≈ 0.114 PLN (mid-December 2025 levels).

• 100,000 THB/sqm ≈ 11,400 PLN/sqm
• 139,000 THB/sqm ≈ 15,846 PLN/sqm
• 144,000 THB/sqm ≈ 16,416 PLN/sqm
• 181,000 THB/sqm ≈ 20,634 PLN/sqm

In 2026, update the rate before making decisions (especially if you're financing purchases in PLN and comparing returns).

6) How to Approach a Purchase in 2026: Simple Logic of "What Must Check Out"

1. Non-Substitutable Location
   If 8 similar projects are launching within 1–2 km, per-sqm prices will face pressure. If the location is unique (actual walking distance to key points), it's easier to defend pricing.
2. Product for Real 2026 Demand (Long-Stay / Mid-Term)
   Layout, storage, kitchen, acoustic quality, and "livability inside," not just lobby and pool. This will matter increasingly.
3. Distinguish: Branded vs Non-Branded
   The brand premium is measurable and substantial. If a project isn't branded, it must win on something else (location, standards, entry price, operator track record).
4. Beware Legal Narratives in Offers
   In Thailand, standard leases are 30 years; promises of "guaranteed 30+30+30" as certain legal right is territory to treat very carefully and verify with a lawyer (market practice can be marketing-aggressive).

7) Most Likely for 2026: Three Market Scenarios

We don't have one "official" report with hard per-sqm prices for all of 2026 (many reports cover 2024–2025), but based on collected sources, we can sensibly describe scenarios:

Base scenario (most realistic):
Per-sqm prices hold or rise moderately in top locations (Cherngtalay/Bang Tao) and branded segments, while the rest of the market works with promotions/discounts and extended sales times as competition from resale grows.

Pro-demand scenario:
Long-stay and relocations maintain pace, while new supply is more controlled (suggested by developer caution post-2024 record). In this case, best projects may raise per-sqm prices faster than median.

Cautious scenario:
Transaction volumes drop ("cooler" market), but prices needn't fall sharply—rather, dispersion grows: top holds, mid-tier gives up margin through packages, furniture, payment terms. This picture fits reports of volume cooling in H1 2025.

Sources

• C9 Hotelworks, Phuket Property Market Update – May 2025 (median per-sqm prices, branded vs non-branded, primary vs secondary, data as of April 30, 2025).
• Colliers Thailand, Radar Phuket Residential Market 2024 (2024 supply, absorption, 2025 launch forecast, demand profiles).
• Bangkok Post, materials on Phuket market 2025 (cooling signals, off-plan vs resale per-sqm relationship).
• Wise, THB→PLN (reference rate and December 2025 ranges).