Vietnam – The New Thailand? Facts and Myths About the Real Estate Market in 2026

Vietnam – The New Thailand? Where Did This Comparison Come From

The comparison of Vietnam to Thailand appears regularly in conversations among European investors. The argument is simple: dynamic economic growth, a rising middle class, improving infrastructure, and an influx of foreign capital. In theory, Vietnam today is what Thailand was 15–20 years ago.

The problem is that most of these comparisons are highly superficial. The real estate market doesn't develop linearly, and "the new Thailand" is more of a marketing slogan than a precise investment diagnosis. To assess how much truth is in this claim, we need to break down the topic into numbers, law, costs, and real demand.

Economic Growth Rates – Numbers, Not Slogans

Vietnam is indeed one of the fastest-growing economies in Southeast Asia today. Between 2015–2019, GDP grew at an average of 6.5–7% annually. After the pandemic slowdown, growth returned to around 5–6% per year.

By comparison, Thailand during the same period grew more slowly, averaging 2.5–3.5% annually. This is one of the main figures cited by proponents of the "Vietnam = new Thailand" thesis.

Sources:

https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/vietnam/overview

https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/thailand/overview

Demographics – The Foundation Not Visible in Sales Brochures

Vietnam has over 100 million inhabitants, with a large proportion in working age. The median age is approximately 32 years. By comparison, Thailand is aging faster – the median age has already exceeded 40 years.

This matters for the residential market. Vietnam generates real end-user demand: young families, IT specialists, management professionals, and internal migration to major cities like Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, and Da Nang.

In Thailand, residential demand largely relies on investors, tourism, and the secondary market rather than demographics.

Sources:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=VN

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=TH

Property Prices – Where the First Myths Begin

One of the most common myths is the belief that Vietnam is "cheap like Thailand 20 years ago." This is false.

In Ho Chi Minh City, prices for new apartments in prime locations today are:

• $3,000–$5,500 per sqm in mid-range and upper-tier projects
• Premium projects exceed $6,000 per sqm

In Da Nang, prices are lower:

• $2,000–$3,500 per sqm in beachfront or central projects

For comparison, Phuket and Bangkok in Thailand:

• Bangkok: $3,500–$6,500 per sqm in prime locations
• Phuket: $4,000–$7,000 per sqm in investment projects

A price difference exists, but it's no longer the "gap" suggested by sales brochures.

Sources:

https://www.knightfrank.com/research

https://www.cbre.com/insights/books/asia-pacific-market-outlook

Property Ownership Rights – The Biggest Difference Between Vietnam and Thailand

This is a crucial point that is most often omitted from marketing materials.

In Thailand, a foreigner can purchase a condo on full ownership (freehold) within the 49% foreign quota. The law is clear, established, and has functioned for decades.

In Vietnam, a foreigner:

• does not purchase land
• purchases apartment ownership rights for 50 years (with possible extension)
• is subject to quotas on the number of units available to foreigners in a project

Formally, this is not the same as Thai freehold, even if marketing uses similar terminology.

Source:

https://vietnamlawmagazine.vn/housing-law-2014-its-impacts-on-the-real-estate-market-5891.html

Purchase Costs – Numbers That Impact ROI

Vietnam is often marketed as a market "with low entry costs." This is only partially true.

Typical costs when purchasing an apartment in Vietnam:

• VAT: 10% (often included in the quoted price, but not always)
• Fee for ownership certificate issuance (Pink Book): approximately 0.5% of value
• Notary and administrative fees: 0.1–0.2%
• Agent commission: usually paid by the seller, but indirectly included in the price

In total, the real transaction cost is approximately 10.5–11% of the property value.

For comparison, Thailand:

• Transfer fee: 2%
• Stamp duty: 0.5%
• Withholding tax: 1–3%
• Total: approximately 3–6% depending on transaction structure

Sources:

https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Vietnam/Buying-Guide

https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Thailand/Buying-Guide

The Most Common Myth: "Vietnam Will Deliver Higher ROI Than Thailand"

This slogan appears almost everywhere. The problem is that ROI depends not on the country, but on:

• entry price
• operating costs
• actual tenant demand
• secondary market liquidity

In Vietnam:

• long-term rental in HCMC realistically yields 4–6% gross
• short-term rental is heavily restricted by regulations in many projects
• the secondary market is less liquid than in Thailand

In Thailand:

• Phuket and Bangkok offer 5–8% gross in well-selected projects
• short-term rental is a market standard
• the secondary market is deeper and more liquid

Sources:

https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/insights/asia-pacific

https://www.jll.com.vn/en/trends-and-insights

Vietnam in 30 Seconds – The Most Important Fact

Vietnam is a growth market driven by demographics and the economy, not tourism. This is its greatest advantage, but also a fundamental difference from Thailand.

The Most Common Myth About Vietnam – Debunked

Myth: "Vietnam is Thailand from 20 years ago".

Fact: It's a completely different market, with different laws, different demand structure, and different liquidity.

3 Facts You Must Know About Vietnam

1. Foreigners' ownership rights are time-limited.
2. Prices in top cities are no longer "early market" levels.
3. End-user demand is strong, but the investment market is still professionalizing.

Real Estate Market Cycle – Vietnam vs Thailand

In Thailand, the real estate market today is a mature market. This means most "easy" price growth has already occurred, and investing is mainly based on:

• cash flow from rental income,
• secondary market liquidity,
• project selection, not "buying anything".

Vietnam is at an earlier stage of the cycle, but this doesn't automatically mean higher returns. In practice, it means:

• greater price volatility,
• higher regulatory risk,
• less predictable secondary market.

In cities like Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi, market segmentation is already visible – prime locations and premium projects maintain value, while weak locations struggle with liquidity. This is very similar to Bangkok about 8–10 years ago, not Phuket 20 years ago as marketing suggests.

Sources:

https://www.jll.com.vn/en/trends-and-insights/research

https://www.knightfrank.com/research

Secondary Market Liquidity – A Rarely Discussed Topic

One of the key investment criteria is the ability to exit an investment. In Thailand, the secondary market functions relatively smoothly:

• transactions close in 1–3 months,
• there is an active base of local and foreign buyers,
• prices are market-verified, not "wishful".

In Vietnam:

• secondary market sales often take 6–12 months,
• foreign demand is limited by legal quotas,
• prices are sometimes artificially supported by developers, but not by real buyers.

This means the exit strategy in Vietnam must be planned much more carefully than in Thailand.

Source:

https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Vietnam

Regulatory Risks – The Mental Difference Between States

Thailand, despite bureaucracy, offers a relatively stable and predictable legal environment for foreigners. Rules change rarely and usually after lengthy consultations.

In Vietnam:

• property law has been amended multiple times in the last 10 years,
• interpretation of regulations varies by province,
• foreigners always remain "guests of the system," not full market participants.

This doesn't mean investing in Vietnam is bad, but it does mean systemic risk is higher than in Thailand.

Source:

https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/news/vietnam-real-estate-laws-and-regulations.html

Operating Costs – Seemingly Low, Actually Comparable

It's often said that property maintenance in Vietnam is "significantly cheaper." In practice, the differences are smaller than they appear.

Typical monthly costs in Vietnam (1–2BR apartment):

• management fee: $0.6–$1.2 per sqm
• sinking fund: approximately 2% of purchase price (one-time)
• rental management: 15–25% of income
• insurance: $80–$150 annually

In Thailand:

• management fee: $1–$2 per sqm
• sinking fund: $300–$600 one-time
• rental management: 20–30% of income
• insurance: $100–$200 annually

Differences exist, but they're not revolutionary. Results are determined by demand, not cost structure alone.

Sources:

https://www.cbre.com/insights

https://www.globalpropertyguide.com

Who Should Consider Vietnam as an Investment

Vietnam can be a good choice if you:

• invest long-term (10+ years),
• count on economic growth, not quick flips,
• accept lower secondary market liquidity,
• buy in prime locations, not "because it's cheaper".

This is a market for patient investors conscious of regulatory risk.

Who Should NOT Consider Vietnam

Vietnam is not suitable if you:

• seek stable cash flow from day one,
• expect easy resale after 3–5 years,
• want full ownership without time restrictions,
• invest primarily for short-term tourist rentals.

In these cases, Thailand – particularly Phuket and Bangkok – offers a more predictable model.

Scenarios for Vietnam 2026–2030

Growth scenario:

• continued FDI inflow,
• infrastructure development,
• middle-class expansion,
• prices rising 3–6% annually in top cities.

Base scenario:

• price stabilization,
• selective growth only in the best projects,
• pressure on weaker locations.

Risk scenario:

• tightening of regulations,
• restriction of foreign demand,
• decline in secondary market liquidity.

Source:

https://www.asiapropertyawards.com/en/market-insights/

The Final Answer: Is Vietnam the New Thailand?

No.

Vietnam is a different market, at a different stage, with different investment logic. It can be an excellent portfolio complement, but it doesn't replace Thailand one-to-one.

If someone is selling Vietnam as "the new Thailand," they're selling a story, not an analysis.